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a rising pool lifts all rubber duckies
Apr. 18th, 2018 08:44 amAfter a plummet below 2600 in late March, the S&P 500 has zig-zagged its way back above 2700 over the last couple of weeks, with the VIX falling from over 20 back to the mid-teens. Apparently the mis-adventure of a declining empire tossing around a 100+ cruise missiles is good for the economy. Until it’s not. The leaders of the United States continue with a policy meddling and not making friends in the world, and there comes an inflection point at some time when that will be a problem. How many of us held their collective breath, waiting for a Russian or Chinese cruise missile to be tossed back for fun?
Meanwhile, employment data a couple of weeks ago continue to show a very tight jobs market, with the unemployment number irrelevant, and hours, pay, and participation numbers showing more of the real story. Take away the crazy “paper-pushing” jobs being added in health care, and the American employment numbers would be a horror story going on a decade now. Dig deeper into the reports, and part-time, non-technical and service jobs are the ones propping up the numbers – not the good, family and middle-class lifestyle supporting jobs of yesteryear. Retail is showing stress, and reflects the weakness of the “real” economy, and not the proclaimed strength of Trump’s (and wealthy people in general) world. Oil is inching up near $70 now, and more theater in the Middle East would tip much of the economy, already teetering on the edge, over and into the abyss.
The gun control furor has died down a bit, and it remains to be seen what the next news incident might be that triggers the non-nonsensical knee-jerk reaction to a complex issue. When people “demand” changes that defy logic and undermine what little freedoms we have remaining in our society, it makes me reflect on our poor education system. Did outlawing drugs work? Did outlawing alcohol work? If we want to get to the root cause of mass shootings, shouldn’t we look at how mental health services in this country approach the problem? The Parkland incident involved a young man who’d been suspended from school for bringing a gun, had been reported to have pointed a gun at someone’s head, and was considered for a mental health facility for threats to others (Baker Act), and unfortunately with all these warning signs, his specific case was not addressed properly.
The other big issue over the last couple of weeks has been the Facebook story, and how the big Internet interests track you, analyze you, categorize you, and monetize you. I’ve even experienced getting an unsolicited call from a assisted care facility “finder” service, after mentioning that phrase on a cell phone call with my brother. Everything done electronically is scanned, swept, sliced, diced, spindled and mutilated for economic gain. Privacy is non-existent. Data security is anything but secure, and therefore participation should be questioned. It’s beyond belief that some find it worthwhile to have active microphones in their home to facilitate shopping or obtaining the weather forecast.
And yesterday, an exploding engine on a Southwest Airlines flight from NYC to Dallas resulted in the first passenger death since 2009 on an American airline. Kudos to pilot Tammie Jo Shults who parlayed her Navy experience and pilot training into getting the plane safely on the ground in Philly. Since I fly later today back to Portland, I’m hoping my pilots are equally skilled.
Meanwhile, employment data a couple of weeks ago continue to show a very tight jobs market, with the unemployment number irrelevant, and hours, pay, and participation numbers showing more of the real story. Take away the crazy “paper-pushing” jobs being added in health care, and the American employment numbers would be a horror story going on a decade now. Dig deeper into the reports, and part-time, non-technical and service jobs are the ones propping up the numbers – not the good, family and middle-class lifestyle supporting jobs of yesteryear. Retail is showing stress, and reflects the weakness of the “real” economy, and not the proclaimed strength of Trump’s (and wealthy people in general) world. Oil is inching up near $70 now, and more theater in the Middle East would tip much of the economy, already teetering on the edge, over and into the abyss.
The gun control furor has died down a bit, and it remains to be seen what the next news incident might be that triggers the non-nonsensical knee-jerk reaction to a complex issue. When people “demand” changes that defy logic and undermine what little freedoms we have remaining in our society, it makes me reflect on our poor education system. Did outlawing drugs work? Did outlawing alcohol work? If we want to get to the root cause of mass shootings, shouldn’t we look at how mental health services in this country approach the problem? The Parkland incident involved a young man who’d been suspended from school for bringing a gun, had been reported to have pointed a gun at someone’s head, and was considered for a mental health facility for threats to others (Baker Act), and unfortunately with all these warning signs, his specific case was not addressed properly.
The other big issue over the last couple of weeks has been the Facebook story, and how the big Internet interests track you, analyze you, categorize you, and monetize you. I’ve even experienced getting an unsolicited call from a assisted care facility “finder” service, after mentioning that phrase on a cell phone call with my brother. Everything done electronically is scanned, swept, sliced, diced, spindled and mutilated for economic gain. Privacy is non-existent. Data security is anything but secure, and therefore participation should be questioned. It’s beyond belief that some find it worthwhile to have active microphones in their home to facilitate shopping or obtaining the weather forecast.
And yesterday, an exploding engine on a Southwest Airlines flight from NYC to Dallas resulted in the first passenger death since 2009 on an American airline. Kudos to pilot Tammie Jo Shults who parlayed her Navy experience and pilot training into getting the plane safely on the ground in Philly. Since I fly later today back to Portland, I’m hoping my pilots are equally skilled.