floating above reality....

The markets continue their march upwards, with the S&P retreating a bit today after threatening the 2800 level. Looks to me like the dollar's retreat over the last week or so may be over, so the markets will adjust down and bit, and then if the dollar weakens, I expect the march upward to continue. Despite the warning signs from Europe, the commodities, and Argentina, the markets will most likely climb the wall of worry this summer. Too many stories are bearish, and everyone knows that a Black Swan arrives unexpectedly, by definition. But the latter half of 2018 will provide the potential for negative catalysts, as the mid-terms should shake things up, and by year end more people will understand how the Trump "tax cuts" were anything but that for the upper middle class anyway. Take away those exemptions, and limit the deductions, and before you know it Uncle Sugar is the one getting all the sweets. And make no mistake, the .Fed's appetite for funding is insatiable - despite collecting record taxes, or "revenue" as the takers describe it, Uncle Sugar ran a $532B deficit for the first eight fiscal months of 2018. That runs to about spending 20% more than it takes in, which for the rest of us without an electronic printing press, is against the law.

In other news, the Trump-Kim summit turned out to be the predicted circus, with James Howard Kunstler's blog post on Monday using the same analogy I made to Wrasling. If I was 1/4 the writer he was, I'd cry foul, but instead I'll just be smug and consider great minds think alike. Hopefully he won't cry foul. Indeed, Dennis Rodman did show up in Singapore, but cried with a MAGA hat on. Great photo op. Supposedly, North Korea will disarm within a couple of years, but I won't be holding my breath. I've maintained the view for a long time now it's all a distraction, and the Norks are simply a dark puppet of the Chinese. Watch those strings! But the news today shows us the real purpose, from the U.S. side of things, of why the summit took place - Trump is now being nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize. These puppet masters really could use a fresh playbook. Larry Kudlow suffered heart problems while on the trip, but like many insiders with questionable use, err like HRC, he's now recovering. Pity.

In a more dangerous trend for the big picture, the German Cultural Council is urging TV networks to pull the plug on political talk shows, as they apparently are helping fuel the rise of the far right. Well, here's a tip - if you don't like populism, perhaps you should review current government policy. Cause and effect can be tricky for the naive, but banning shows promoting a view is likely to backfire. Trump is complaining that NBC and CNN's "fake news" is the biggest enemy of the country. A statement so rich with irony as to be mind-boggling. The bottom line is that censorship continues is ghastly march down the pike, and a future where politically incorrect thoughts, not just words, will require reprogramming. No wonder one in three Americans is taking a drug with depressive side effects - the world can be depressing.

There's a plan that'll be on the November 6th ballot to split California into three states. The only problem is, it's done by geography, instead of class, with all three proposed areas maintaining large metro areas. It's the cities versus the outlying areas that define the opposite views, so I'd venture to state this "plan" will provide no relief for the building frustration of the makers out there. Polar ice is shrinking faster, volcanoes continue to erupt, and seafood being passed off as a more costly species continues to plague the markets - supposedly one in five fish caught today are taken illegally, which results in something not sustainable. Part of me wants to forego eating seafood to conserve it, and part of me wants to consume seafood while it's still available. That dichotomy is present for many choices we make in today's world....