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drhoovesThe S&P futures were down overnight, and in trading today the market went as low as 2711, before bouncing up over 20 points into the close. Apparently, some fears over the Trumped-up "trade war" are to blame, but I'm a bit skeptical about that. The Fed also chimed in with a tidbit of "no rush about rates", implying the artificial goosing of the market may continue as the new normal. Unfortunately, for those that buy into that premise (literally), it means you're sold on the ideas of: a - the Fed can actually control the economy and b - this fake numbers economy is sustainable. Me, I don't buy either one, though unlike the orchestra playing on the deck of the Titanic, there's no way to really know what catalyst(s) may spark the rush the to exits. Suffice it to say, whether it's a classic deflationary collapse like back in the 1930s, or whether it's a return of a more potent stagflation seen in the 1970s, there will come a point at which the realization of our predicament will reach that critical mass of people, and the inflection point will go down as a historical milestone. My best guess is that as the Boomers have their nest eggs pilfered, and more and more Americans have to rely on a government program to survive, that somewhere along in there a small percentage of people will wake up - the modern hippies if you will - and demand and get meaningful changes. It'll be at about that point that everyone realizes that somebody has to pay, or go to jail, or die, or what have you. I'm hoping it's a relatively smooth and peaceful transition, and very unlikely to be Mad Max like, but there's certainly a possibility it'll be bumpy.
In other news, the Trump/Comey/Mueller/Russians/Hillary/Manafort drama continues. If I didn't know any better, I'd think that this was just a ploy to distract us from something else, but what that might - hey, look - squirrel!!! Where was I? Oh, yeah. The NFL banned kneeling, which seems well within their rights, and only about two years too late. While lower turnouts this fall will still be blamed on the unpatriotic kneel-downs, I'll be chiming in to point out it might be something to do with the crappy economy. Gas prices are hitting highs again, with the National Average over $3 per gallon (so I guess Washington State has high gas taxes), but Memorial Day travel is expected to be very high. At the same time, summer travel may be low, with 40% of Americans declining to drive anywhere by one poll, though another report has summer time air travel booked solid. As we say at the racetrack, there's conflicting signals.
Speaking of which, Justify won the Preakness, and is now poised to become the next Triple Crown winner in 2.5 weeks. I want to see how his works go, and what the field looks like that lines up against him, but based on his performance, the dismay over his Preakness speed figure, and the quality of competition, I'm guessing he wins at this point. Will I bet him? Probably not. And, along the same theme of betting, the Supreme Court ruled last week that Nevada does not own a monopoly on sports betting, and now the door may very well be opened to sports betting all over the U.S. - sort of like civilized Britain has had, for well, forever. While again, some are jumping up and down with glee about expanding their fantasy football picks into real wagers, I see it as another predictable marker of decline. The mob's grip on the illegal betting as finally weakened to a point where the politicians can publically propose it, in the search of new "revenue". Revenue. Yeah, that's the word for it.
End times may be getting closer, as last week the Pope came out and said it was okay to be gay. Gasp! Well, he's a bit late to that particular party, eh? But again, while some would react by saying, "hey, isn't that nice of the Pope to be so progressive?", the cynical voice inside my head is saying, "hey, what do we need to do to prop up flagging attendance down at St. Larrys?" Yes, I'm a firm believer in the old adage, "follow the money". Roseanne ratings dipped for the finale, but did well over all, and I read somewhere that some oldies are coming back - like Magnum PI. A trip down memory lane where the 1980s are now seen as the good old days is saying something. What that is, I'm not sure, but it seems more bad than good. Give me a good ol' fashioned air raid drill, and ducking and covering in the school basement over Roseanne.
In other news, the Trump/Comey/Mueller/Russians/Hillary/Manafort drama continues. If I didn't know any better, I'd think that this was just a ploy to distract us from something else, but what that might - hey, look - squirrel!!! Where was I? Oh, yeah. The NFL banned kneeling, which seems well within their rights, and only about two years too late. While lower turnouts this fall will still be blamed on the unpatriotic kneel-downs, I'll be chiming in to point out it might be something to do with the crappy economy. Gas prices are hitting highs again, with the National Average over $3 per gallon (so I guess Washington State has high gas taxes), but Memorial Day travel is expected to be very high. At the same time, summer travel may be low, with 40% of Americans declining to drive anywhere by one poll, though another report has summer time air travel booked solid. As we say at the racetrack, there's conflicting signals.
Speaking of which, Justify won the Preakness, and is now poised to become the next Triple Crown winner in 2.5 weeks. I want to see how his works go, and what the field looks like that lines up against him, but based on his performance, the dismay over his Preakness speed figure, and the quality of competition, I'm guessing he wins at this point. Will I bet him? Probably not. And, along the same theme of betting, the Supreme Court ruled last week that Nevada does not own a monopoly on sports betting, and now the door may very well be opened to sports betting all over the U.S. - sort of like civilized Britain has had, for well, forever. While again, some are jumping up and down with glee about expanding their fantasy football picks into real wagers, I see it as another predictable marker of decline. The mob's grip on the illegal betting as finally weakened to a point where the politicians can publically propose it, in the search of new "revenue". Revenue. Yeah, that's the word for it.
End times may be getting closer, as last week the Pope came out and said it was okay to be gay. Gasp! Well, he's a bit late to that particular party, eh? But again, while some would react by saying, "hey, isn't that nice of the Pope to be so progressive?", the cynical voice inside my head is saying, "hey, what do we need to do to prop up flagging attendance down at St. Larrys?" Yes, I'm a firm believer in the old adage, "follow the money". Roseanne ratings dipped for the finale, but did well over all, and I read somewhere that some oldies are coming back - like Magnum PI. A trip down memory lane where the 1980s are now seen as the good old days is saying something. What that is, I'm not sure, but it seems more bad than good. Give me a good ol' fashioned air raid drill, and ducking and covering in the school basement over Roseanne.
