the market now in the deep end of the pool
Apr. 4th, 2018 07:15 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
drhoovesSo it's Wednesday, and another feeble attempt here to take a look at the markets and news, and place them in perspective to a regular person's life. The big news for the markets this past week has been the ongoing tariff war between the U.S. and China, as each launches a salvo followed by counter-salvo on goods being assigned tariffs, reminding me of the rocket's red glare over Ft. McHenry so long ago. At least the Battle of Baltimore back in 1814 provided us with a catchy tune for the National Anthem, or so the story goes. I lean towards the possibility this is the opening skirmish for a rather messy economic war, in which we'll all lose, as the transition from debt-based infinite growth economic models transitions to contracting stagflation. Critical resources like water, food, oil, credit, health care, etc., will continue to become more scarce and expensive, shrinking the pool of disposable income for the bottom 90% to further encroach on the not-so-disposable portion of the household budget. Ummm. that would be food, shelter and clothing.
This economic reality will hit home not only in the U.S., but all over the world. When I read most economic articles, they quickly gravitate into one of four corners - the "business as usual" and "tech will save us" upbeat ones, and the "economic depression is nigh" and "hello mad max" corners. The future is going to be interesting for sure, but the eventual path will likely be somewhere between the extremes, as John Michael Greer so eloquently points out in his blog posts and books. Personally, I do think "this time is different" in the sense we'll be trying to wean ourselves off fossil fuels, and convert to a lifestyle with far less energy available. As the planes in and out of PDX rumble overhead, I believe air travel will be one of the first industries the average consumer is priced out of, followed by rationing of some sort. That'll make for less noise, which is a plus. But now back to other news.
The S&P is desperately trying to hold on to the 200 day moving average, near 2590, but my guess is it'll head down to the February lows (2535ish), before any extended rebound. Job numbers were "good" today in the sense they were above the 200K or so required to keep up with population growth, but the unemployed and underemployed numbers (including yours truly at the moment) remain at all time highs in terms of sheer numbers. Trump's approval numbers are now above the 50%, and Hillary continues to blame the Russians, FBI, misogynists and now the NRA for her loss. /sarcasm_on No, it couldn't be anything to do with her 40 years of "public" service where the failures were far greater than any accomplishments, oh no.... /sarcasm_off Trump is hardly great, but I can't help but get the sense we dodged a bullet with Hillary, and the difficult times ahead.
The Roseanne show reboot has high ratings, though Kareem is warning it's anything but pro-Trump. I watched about three minutes of it last night, noted the actors have aged a bit, and I can barely understand John Goodman's raspy voice now. Yesterday a Persian woman in California flipped and shot three people at Youtube HQ before committing suicide. The gun grabbers quick to jump on "another mass shooting" bandwagon, at the same time jumping back off as they discovered the politically sensitive nature of the shooter. I wonder if we'll find out how she obtained the handgun used in the attack. Yellowstone is rumbling, and the Steamboat geyser, the world's tallest, erupted recently for the first time in 3.5 years. A major volcanic eruption would be pretty catastrophic, with colder temps for a few years having negative effects on crops world-wide.
And finally, in keeping with last week's post concerning chickens, a teen in Florida channeled his inner Alice Cooper and bit the head off a live chicken at a high school "Farm to Table" display over the weekend, as well as tossing eggs around. Let's hope he was on drugs.
This economic reality will hit home not only in the U.S., but all over the world. When I read most economic articles, they quickly gravitate into one of four corners - the "business as usual" and "tech will save us" upbeat ones, and the "economic depression is nigh" and "hello mad max" corners. The future is going to be interesting for sure, but the eventual path will likely be somewhere between the extremes, as John Michael Greer so eloquently points out in his blog posts and books. Personally, I do think "this time is different" in the sense we'll be trying to wean ourselves off fossil fuels, and convert to a lifestyle with far less energy available. As the planes in and out of PDX rumble overhead, I believe air travel will be one of the first industries the average consumer is priced out of, followed by rationing of some sort. That'll make for less noise, which is a plus. But now back to other news.
The S&P is desperately trying to hold on to the 200 day moving average, near 2590, but my guess is it'll head down to the February lows (2535ish), before any extended rebound. Job numbers were "good" today in the sense they were above the 200K or so required to keep up with population growth, but the unemployed and underemployed numbers (including yours truly at the moment) remain at all time highs in terms of sheer numbers. Trump's approval numbers are now above the 50%, and Hillary continues to blame the Russians, FBI, misogynists and now the NRA for her loss. /sarcasm_on No, it couldn't be anything to do with her 40 years of "public" service where the failures were far greater than any accomplishments, oh no.... /sarcasm_off Trump is hardly great, but I can't help but get the sense we dodged a bullet with Hillary, and the difficult times ahead.
The Roseanne show reboot has high ratings, though Kareem is warning it's anything but pro-Trump. I watched about three minutes of it last night, noted the actors have aged a bit, and I can barely understand John Goodman's raspy voice now. Yesterday a Persian woman in California flipped and shot three people at Youtube HQ before committing suicide. The gun grabbers quick to jump on "another mass shooting" bandwagon, at the same time jumping back off as they discovered the politically sensitive nature of the shooter. I wonder if we'll find out how she obtained the handgun used in the attack. Yellowstone is rumbling, and the Steamboat geyser, the world's tallest, erupted recently for the first time in 3.5 years. A major volcanic eruption would be pretty catastrophic, with colder temps for a few years having negative effects on crops world-wide.
And finally, in keeping with last week's post concerning chickens, a teen in Florida channeled his inner Alice Cooper and bit the head off a live chicken at a high school "Farm to Table" display over the weekend, as well as tossing eggs around. Let's hope he was on drugs.